Reading Zerohedge the past couple of years it's easy to see DOOM
approaching. Now DOOM really seems to be just weeks or months away
for the Euro, probably pretty close for US banks as well, one thing
seems really obvious to me. All credit default swaps should be
cancelled and they should be made illegal.
Banks buy cds' to hedge against losses, but really they just make an
entangled alliance of risk. Banks think they are hedged, so there
is no risk and they can be even more leveraged. When one domino falls
they are all going to blow up like the scene in Finding Nemo, where a
falling torpedo sets off all the mines around the submarine that Nemo
and Dory are hiding in. boom.
Instead of hedging the risk the cds' are just propagating the risk
around the world, and who knows how much of it there is. why they
weren't outlawed after 2008 made me lose the little bit of faith
I had in the congress.
If the OWS people want to protest something concrete they should be
demanding the end to TBTF, and CDS' instead of just demanding cheap
pot.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Thursday, October 06, 2011
Steve Jobs bought me a car
When I got to use the mechanincal engineering department's Mac SE's
back in 1988, I was amazed, compared to the vt100 terminals or
DOS box's we had it was beamed in from another world. My parents asked
me what computer to buy in 1998 and I said buy an iMac. Tricky to use
dialup on that, but my young relatives were able to create creepy
speeches using the speech synthesizer. Around 2002/2003 I was sitting in
a cubicle in houston listening to music playing from the adjacent
cubicle, and it never repeated. over days and of music, it was
always different. I finally went around the corner and asked how
are you doing that? and my neighbor showed me his iPod. I saw that
and immediately looked up aapl stock and saw that it had almost as
much cash as market cap. I used the only gambling money I had, which
was the remains of my dot-bomb account on etrade and bought 2k worth
of aapl.
If I had kept more of it longer or bought more I could have been rich, instead
i made enough to buy a car. I'll give myself credit that I can recognize genius when I see something like an ipod for the first time, but true genius is the guy who could create something like an ipod, or iphone (my iphone 1 being stolen still hurts), an ipad or Mac air, and not compromise with the people who must have been there saying
don't spend the money on designing a new interface, just sell what we have
and maintain profitability.
True genius.
Anyway. sad that you are gone, I hope you find peace.
back in 1988, I was amazed, compared to the vt100 terminals or
DOS box's we had it was beamed in from another world. My parents asked
me what computer to buy in 1998 and I said buy an iMac. Tricky to use
dialup on that, but my young relatives were able to create creepy
speeches using the speech synthesizer. Around 2002/2003 I was sitting in
a cubicle in houston listening to music playing from the adjacent
cubicle, and it never repeated. over days and of music, it was
always different. I finally went around the corner and asked how
are you doing that? and my neighbor showed me his iPod. I saw that
and immediately looked up aapl stock and saw that it had almost as
much cash as market cap. I used the only gambling money I had, which
was the remains of my dot-bomb account on etrade and bought 2k worth
of aapl.
If I had kept more of it longer or bought more I could have been rich, instead
i made enough to buy a car. I'll give myself credit that I can recognize genius when I see something like an ipod for the first time, but true genius is the guy who could create something like an ipod, or iphone (my iphone 1 being stolen still hurts), an ipad or Mac air, and not compromise with the people who must have been there saying
don't spend the money on designing a new interface, just sell what we have
and maintain profitability.
True genius.
Anyway. sad that you are gone, I hope you find peace.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
September 11th - 10 years later
I was watching cnbc when they broke into live coverage of
the premarket with video of the first tower that was hit.
We had just gone to New York on vacation 2 weeks before, and
we went into the south tower to Windows on the World, but
they wouldn't let us on the roof, it was raining slightly.
I said don't worry, we'll come back to New York another time.
-doh. When they showed the first tower was on fire, I said
"that's the building we didn't go into" and I went back to
eating my cereal. I with my head down in the feedbag I didn't
see the 2nd plane hit, just the resulting red glow of the
steel after the fireball subsided.
Strangely enough, we left home. I brought my wife to school
and I went to the office. Even with war starting I was scheduled
to go offshore the next day and I had to do some preparatory
work on a unix box at the office. My boss called from NO
and said they were evacuating and I could go home too, but
I wasn't finished yet, so I rolled a tv out of a conference room
into the hallway where I could hear it. Every website
I knew was down, it wan't until later in the afternoon that
I discovered Instapundit, so I was stuck listening while
software slowly ground through some data. When they said
that the south tower had collapsed, I couldn't believe it,
I pictured the top falling off, or partially collapsing. I
couldn't picture the building collapsing because it was so
freaking huge. Just seeing it on tv didn't describe it's size
you had to walk around it, and look up from the base to see
up the dizzying heights to appreciate how giant those buildings
were. I didn't imagine it collapsing into a pile of dust and
twisted steel.
I finally finished and went home, then I went offshore that
night, arriving to fourchon at 5:30 to take one of the last
helicopters that week, because they shut down all helicopters
as well later that day. I spent the next week working in
a logging cabin, and reading about what had happened on
blogs, the best information was on Jerry Pournelle's
page The stories about firefighters running up the stairs
to the 75th story were pretty amazing, but the most amazing was
the story of Rick Rescorla, who was singing Men of Harlech while
getting his people to evacuate, and staying until the building
collapsed around him.
Men of Harlech
Men of Harlech stop your dreaming
can't you see their spear points gleaming
see their warrior pennons streaming
to this battle field
Men of Harlech stand ye steady
Let it not be ever said ye
For this battle were unready
Welshmen do not yield
From the hills rebounding
Let the war cry sounding
Summon all, the clarion call
the mighty foe surrounding
Men of Harlech on to glory
This will ever be your story
keep these stirring words before ye
Welshmen do not yield
Fight for father, sister, mother,
Each is bound to each as bother;
And with faith in one another,
We will win or die!
Tho' our mothers may be weeping,
Tho' our sisters may be keeping
watch for some who now are sleeping;
On the battlefield,
Still the trumpet's braying,
Sounds on ever saying,
Let each bowman pierce a foe,
And never stop the slaying,
Till invaders learn to fear us,
And no Saxon linger near us;
Men of Wales! our God doth hear us,
Never will we yield!
We'll not die, be conquered never
Harlech, Harlech, lives forever
Freedoms' from the greatest giver
Freedom is our good.
See how Welshmen shouting run down
from the moutains they do come down
Like a storm that strikes at sun down
boil up like a flood.
Welshmens strength has made her
Freedom's strong crusader
Swords of Welsh men have cut deep
the heart of the invader
The sword is met, by sword replying
steel on steel on strength relying
See where Gwyers' flag is flying
Freedom's in her blood.
the premarket with video of the first tower that was hit.
We had just gone to New York on vacation 2 weeks before, and
we went into the south tower to Windows on the World, but
they wouldn't let us on the roof, it was raining slightly.
I said don't worry, we'll come back to New York another time.
-doh. When they showed the first tower was on fire, I said
"that's the building we didn't go into" and I went back to
eating my cereal. I with my head down in the feedbag I didn't
see the 2nd plane hit, just the resulting red glow of the
steel after the fireball subsided.
Strangely enough, we left home. I brought my wife to school
and I went to the office. Even with war starting I was scheduled
to go offshore the next day and I had to do some preparatory
work on a unix box at the office. My boss called from NO
and said they were evacuating and I could go home too, but
I wasn't finished yet, so I rolled a tv out of a conference room
into the hallway where I could hear it. Every website
I knew was down, it wan't until later in the afternoon that
I discovered Instapundit, so I was stuck listening while
software slowly ground through some data. When they said
that the south tower had collapsed, I couldn't believe it,
I pictured the top falling off, or partially collapsing. I
couldn't picture the building collapsing because it was so
freaking huge. Just seeing it on tv didn't describe it's size
you had to walk around it, and look up from the base to see
up the dizzying heights to appreciate how giant those buildings
were. I didn't imagine it collapsing into a pile of dust and
twisted steel.
I finally finished and went home, then I went offshore that
night, arriving to fourchon at 5:30 to take one of the last
helicopters that week, because they shut down all helicopters
as well later that day. I spent the next week working in
a logging cabin, and reading about what had happened on
blogs, the best information was on Jerry Pournelle's
page The stories about firefighters running up the stairs
to the 75th story were pretty amazing, but the most amazing was
the story of Rick Rescorla, who was singing Men of Harlech while
getting his people to evacuate, and staying until the building
collapsed around him.
Men of Harlech
Men of Harlech stop your dreaming
can't you see their spear points gleaming
see their warrior pennons streaming
to this battle field
Men of Harlech stand ye steady
Let it not be ever said ye
For this battle were unready
Welshmen do not yield
From the hills rebounding
Let the war cry sounding
Summon all, the clarion call
the mighty foe surrounding
Men of Harlech on to glory
This will ever be your story
keep these stirring words before ye
Welshmen do not yield
Fight for father, sister, mother,
Each is bound to each as bother;
And with faith in one another,
We will win or die!
Tho' our mothers may be weeping,
Tho' our sisters may be keeping
watch for some who now are sleeping;
On the battlefield,
Still the trumpet's braying,
Sounds on ever saying,
Let each bowman pierce a foe,
And never stop the slaying,
Till invaders learn to fear us,
And no Saxon linger near us;
Men of Wales! our God doth hear us,
Never will we yield!
We'll not die, be conquered never
Harlech, Harlech, lives forever
Freedoms' from the greatest giver
Freedom is our good.
See how Welshmen shouting run down
from the moutains they do come down
Like a storm that strikes at sun down
boil up like a flood.
Welshmens strength has made her
Freedom's strong crusader
Swords of Welsh men have cut deep
the heart of the invader
The sword is met, by sword replying
steel on steel on strength relying
See where Gwyers' flag is flying
Freedom's in her blood.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
President Obama, bestest writer ever
A good article at American Thinker showing that
the President's earlier writing at the law review
that is as grammatically impaired as mine, miraculously
changes to become the best memoir eva'.
The comments are even funnier, one comment suggesting
that the grammatically impaired are an oppressed minority.
(Sing it brother)
I don't think it's so terrible to be a writer of turgid
prose, my writing varies from turgid to incomprehensible if
I stray off the technical writing dry bones footpath.
I do think the press should have done it's job a couple
of years ago, and written articles like this before the election.
The election is coming up, the mainstream press is already in
full attack mode on the rethuglicans (I've been called worse, I'd
wear tea-bagger as a badge of honor if I ever get the chance).
It would be interesting to see some unbiased strait reporting
of the realities of the presidential candidates. I like Rick Perry
because when I lived in Texas I never heard his name, which is exactly
what I want from the government But maybe he was just playing possum.
Who is he really? Is the only way to find out who a politician is to
elect them to a higher office? To find out what's in a bill, pass it?
Is this a christmas present or a bomb? I don't know, let's crowd in
close and open it. Not the best technique.
the President's earlier writing at the law review
that is as grammatically impaired as mine, miraculously
changes to become the best memoir eva'.
The comments are even funnier, one comment suggesting
that the grammatically impaired are an oppressed minority.
(Sing it brother)
I don't think it's so terrible to be a writer of turgid
prose, my writing varies from turgid to incomprehensible if
I stray off the technical writing dry bones footpath.
I do think the press should have done it's job a couple
of years ago, and written articles like this before the election.
The election is coming up, the mainstream press is already in
full attack mode on the rethuglicans (I've been called worse, I'd
wear tea-bagger as a badge of honor if I ever get the chance).
It would be interesting to see some unbiased strait reporting
of the realities of the presidential candidates. I like Rick Perry
because when I lived in Texas I never heard his name, which is exactly
what I want from the government But maybe he was just playing possum.
Who is he really? Is the only way to find out who a politician is to
elect them to a higher office? To find out what's in a bill, pass it?
Is this a christmas present or a bomb? I don't know, let's crowd in
close and open it. Not the best technique.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
This kind of war
I'm reading "This Kind of War" by T.R. Fehrenbach, which is a history
of the Korean Conflict. Fehrenbach has now become my favorite writer
of History, taking over the spot from Barbara Tuchman (Guns of August).
He also wrote a fantastic history of Mexico that explains why this
country is the way it is. (Fire and Blood, a history of Mexico).
In the same way that Fire and Blood really does a good job of
describing Mexico in such a way that what is happening today
is easy to predict, "this kind of war" tells the story of Korea
in such a gripping way that it is hard to put down. It is also
apparent to me that much of our relationship with China has it's
seeds in the Korean Conflict.
The tale begins with the North Koreans sweeping south over both the
ROK armies as well as ill-trained, ill-equipped american soldiers who
are no longer the professional army of the 1930's, but one that has
been gutted by congressional reforms to make it nicer. The UN forces
finally overcome the NK's and drive them up to the Yalu when they
are almost overwhelmed by the Chinese.
I've read other books and seen movies (even MASH showing the 'buguouts')
that imply what happened, but always presenting US victory as foregone
conclusion. Dr Fehrenbach's book really brings to life the struggle
faced by the army and marines while fighting a limited war.
It is also more apparent to me that the normal presentation of chinese
troops either being Russian catspaws, or allies of the North Koreans isn't
so true, it really was a war between the USA and China, with a slight
veneer of North Koreans and some tech assistance from Russia.
We've mostly forgotten that we fought a bloody war with the Chinese just
60 years ago, but I'm not so sure that the Chinese have. In the letter
that MacArthur published that got him fired, he speaks about how the chinese
have not enough manufacturing to support a modern army, and it would be
possible for the USA to use just a few nukes to completely remove their
industrial capacity. Dr Fehrenbach goes into detail about how MacArthur's
letter upset embassy's around the world.
I imagine the comments about china's backwardness and lack of industry
really hit home in China. In the USA the Korean conflict is long forgotten,
the 50,000 men who died have a nice memorial in washington. Maybe
it's not so forgotten in China and has been a major driver of
the competitiveness and the willingness to spend almost any amount
of money to shut down american industries.
I guess we'll see in a few years, if they have evil intentions we're
almost at that point whatever nefarious plan they have can come to fruition.
If there is no nefarious plan, just plain old mercantilism the same
result could happen, probably just slightly less gloating will occur.
of the Korean Conflict. Fehrenbach has now become my favorite writer
of History, taking over the spot from Barbara Tuchman (Guns of August).
He also wrote a fantastic history of Mexico that explains why this
country is the way it is. (Fire and Blood, a history of Mexico).
In the same way that Fire and Blood really does a good job of
describing Mexico in such a way that what is happening today
is easy to predict, "this kind of war" tells the story of Korea
in such a gripping way that it is hard to put down. It is also
apparent to me that much of our relationship with China has it's
seeds in the Korean Conflict.
The tale begins with the North Koreans sweeping south over both the
ROK armies as well as ill-trained, ill-equipped american soldiers who
are no longer the professional army of the 1930's, but one that has
been gutted by congressional reforms to make it nicer. The UN forces
finally overcome the NK's and drive them up to the Yalu when they
are almost overwhelmed by the Chinese.
I've read other books and seen movies (even MASH showing the 'buguouts')
that imply what happened, but always presenting US victory as foregone
conclusion. Dr Fehrenbach's book really brings to life the struggle
faced by the army and marines while fighting a limited war.
It is also more apparent to me that the normal presentation of chinese
troops either being Russian catspaws, or allies of the North Koreans isn't
so true, it really was a war between the USA and China, with a slight
veneer of North Koreans and some tech assistance from Russia.
We've mostly forgotten that we fought a bloody war with the Chinese just
60 years ago, but I'm not so sure that the Chinese have. In the letter
that MacArthur published that got him fired, he speaks about how the chinese
have not enough manufacturing to support a modern army, and it would be
possible for the USA to use just a few nukes to completely remove their
industrial capacity. Dr Fehrenbach goes into detail about how MacArthur's
letter upset embassy's around the world.
I imagine the comments about china's backwardness and lack of industry
really hit home in China. In the USA the Korean conflict is long forgotten,
the 50,000 men who died have a nice memorial in washington. Maybe
it's not so forgotten in China and has been a major driver of
the competitiveness and the willingness to spend almost any amount
of money to shut down american industries.
I guess we'll see in a few years, if they have evil intentions we're
almost at that point whatever nefarious plan they have can come to fruition.
If there is no nefarious plan, just plain old mercantilism the same
result could happen, probably just slightly less gloating will occur.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
S'scusi, dove il bar?
The song "not now john" by pink floyd is stuck in my head
today, or more specifically the refrain that says "Fuck all that!"
sung by the backup singers.
today, or more specifically the refrain that says "Fuck all that!"
sung by the backup singers.
Thursday, July 07, 2011
Nobody hurt he says
Glenn Reynolds mentioned this article in the NYtimes that shows
how fewer mexicans want to go to the USA now, there are more opportunities
here in Mexico, fewer in the USA and the border region is dangerous.
(I'd bet on number 3, no matter how bad the economy I don't imagine many
suburbanites doing hard labor like picking lettuce for $2/hr)
Glenn then snarks that our employment situation is bad enough in
the USA that Americans will soon be sneaking across the border the
other way. I nearly snorted some coffee out of my nose when I realized
he was talking about me. I nearly had a job offer in the USA last
year when Macondo happened, and then the blowout killed any chance
I had. The deepwater drilling ban killed our operations offshore,
and got a lot of people fired/retired/transferred out.
When Obama implies that no one really lost their job due to his ban,
he shows his ignorance of how the world works. A minimum wage cleanup
job is not the same as technical offshore worker's wage. So thanks
Obama for keeping me an expat. (I'm not saying he shouldn't have
stopped drilling to review the licensing process, but he could have
done it like I suggested here last June)
how fewer mexicans want to go to the USA now, there are more opportunities
here in Mexico, fewer in the USA and the border region is dangerous.
(I'd bet on number 3, no matter how bad the economy I don't imagine many
suburbanites doing hard labor like picking lettuce for $2/hr)
Glenn then snarks that our employment situation is bad enough in
the USA that Americans will soon be sneaking across the border the
other way. I nearly snorted some coffee out of my nose when I realized
he was talking about me. I nearly had a job offer in the USA last
year when Macondo happened, and then the blowout killed any chance
I had. The deepwater drilling ban killed our operations offshore,
and got a lot of people fired/retired/transferred out.
When Obama implies that no one really lost their job due to his ban,
he shows his ignorance of how the world works. A minimum wage cleanup
job is not the same as technical offshore worker's wage. So thanks
Obama for keeping me an expat. (I'm not saying he shouldn't have
stopped drilling to review the licensing process, but he could have
done it like I suggested here last June)
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