Tuesday, March 24, 2009

reading tea leaves

I can't decide what is going to happen, a spiral into deflation
and joblessness or inflation. There's what's good for me personally
and there's what's good for the country, low oil prices could mean
that i'll be unemployed, and if the economy stays low at the same
time I could be unemployed for a long time, such as the oil crash
in 1986 dumped most oilfield workers out of a job for 5 years leading
to uhaul rental as louisiana's biggest economic activity until 1991.

If prices are high then no matter what else is happening to the economy,
somebody somewhere will be drilling for oil, unless the banking industry
really is destroyed. Then we'd see a real disaster, no fuel available,
gas rationing, brownouts and blackouts, and I'd probably be unemployed.

Maybe I'm just a pessimist, but I don't see a good scenario happening.

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